The ABCs of Sports Betting Math

Sports Betting Math

Are you a sports enthusiast who also enjoys a little wager on the side? Whether you’re a die-hard fan or just looking to add some excitement to game day, understanding the math behind sports betting can give you an edge. In this article, we’ll break down key concepts in a way that even a new bettor can grasp. Lessons learnt can earn you some winnings at TonyBet.

Odds and Probability

Odds are the secret language of sport betting. They reflect your winning potential and the potential of specific outcomes. Although there are diffferent types of odds, this article will focus on the most reputable ones. 

Decimal odds show the total payout you can expect if your bet wins, and for example, if you see 2.00 odds on your favorite team, it means you’ll double your money if they win. To understand the probability, simply divide 1 by the odds. So, 1 divided by 2.00 equals 0.50 or 50%. This means the bookmaker thinks there’s a 50% chance your team will win.

Bankroll Management

Sports Betting Math

It’s crucial to decide this amount before you start betting, and it should be an amount you can afford to lose. 

A common recommendation is not to risk more than 5% of your bankroll on a single bet. So, if your bankroll is $200, the maximum amount you should wager is $10. This strategy helps you stay in the game even if you hit a losing streak.

Expected Value (EV)

Expected Value can help you make tailored decisions. By multiplying the odds by your perceived probability, and then subtract the opposite probability you can get the accurate expected value.

For instance, if you believe there’s a 60% chance your team will win, and the odds are 2.00, your EV calculation would be: 

(2.00  0.60) – (1.00  0.40) = 1.20 – 0.40 = 0.80

An EV of 0.80 suggests a positive expected value, which means the bet could be profitable in the long run. Positive EV bets are what you should aim for.

The Law of Large Numbers

Sports Betting Math

Even the best sports bettors experience losses from time to time. This is where the Law of Large Numbers comes into play. It states that over a large number of bets, the actual results should get closer to the expected results. 

For example, if you’re consistently making positive EV bets, you might still lose a few in the short term. But over many bets, you should see a profit. Experts agree on the likelihood of this.


Sports betting is dynamic, and every winning bettor must be dynamic in their approach. In loight of this, not only the knowledge of mathematics is important. It is neccesary for every winning bettor to have vast knowledge about the games, the weather, players, teams and other relevant information. 

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